General-purpose technologies take time to develop their full economic impact. Learn what history teaches about AI productivity and the J-curve.
The discussion surrounding Artificial Intelligence often revolves around impressive demos and technical milestones. However, one crucial question is frequently overlooked: exactly when will we actually be able to measure the promised productivity gains across the broader economy? Economic history provides a sobering yet instructive answer: general purpose technologies take time—often decades—before they unfold their full economic impact. The good news: with every technological revolution, this timeframe has shortened. Even better news: today we understand why this is the case and what is needed to further reduce the delay. The Productivity J Curve: Why things get worse before they get better General Purpose Technologies (GPTs), as economists call them, follow a characteristic pattern. Afte